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ECB sees ‘no reason’ for eurozone slowdown

वि.सं.२०७५ मंसिर १ शनिवार

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17 Nov, FRANKFURT AM MAIN-European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said Friday he saw “no reason” why growth in the eurozone should wither, minimising a sharp slowdown in the third quarter.
“There is certainly no reason why the expansion in the eurozone should suddenly come to an end,” Draghi said at a Frankfurt conference, in comments confirming his determination to end massive central bank support for the economy this year.
But he added that if bank lending dried up or inflation fell back, then that “should in turn be reflected in an adjustment in the expected path of future interest rates.”
That would suggest interest rates could remain at historic lows beyond summer 2019, analysts said.
The ECB chief “just sent a clear signal of the ECB’s willingness to err on the side of caution” before raising rates, ING Diba bank economist Carsten Brzeski commented.
Draghi repeated his assessment that risks to economic growth in the bloc were “broadly balanced” despite looming threats.
That judgement would back ECB plans to end in December its “quantitative easing” stimulus to the economy, designed to bring inflation up to its target of just below 2.0 percent.
After more than three years, the bank will stop regular purchases of government and corporate bonds that have reached a total of more than 2.5 trillion euros ($2.8 trillion), pumped into the economy to stimulate growth.
Growth in the 19-nation single currency area slowed to just 0.2 percent between July and September, with shrinking output in heavyweight economy Germany a major factor.
“A gradual slowdown is normal as expansions mature and growth converges towards its long-run potential,” Draghi said.
He also underlined “one-off factors” such as cold weather, a flu outbreak, industrial action and the introduction of new car emissions tests that have braked production in the vital sector since September.
But the greater danger, he argued, was from “trade uncertainty… in particular relating to protectionism” that could further weigh on already sluggish global trade growth.
While US President Donald Trump’s “America first” White House has struck a new accord with Mexico and Canada, his confrontations with China and the European Union over trade are still on the boil.
For now, a “virtuous circle between employment, labour income and consumption” at home helps the eurozone weather headwinds from abroad, Draghi noted.

Baghdad strikes deal with Kurds to restart Kirkuk oil exports
KIRKUK, Iraq, Nov 16, 2018 (AFP) – Iraq’s central government has agreed with Kurdish authorities to resume oil exports from Kirkuk, the oil ministry said Friday, a year after federal forces seized the lucrative fields.
Iraqi security units took the fields from Kurdish forces in October 2017, in retaliation for a controversial independence referendum in the Kurdish region.
But since the pipeline to neighbouring Turkey ran through Kurdish-held territory, there was no way to take significant sums of oil out of Kirkuk, so exports stopped.
On Friday, oil ministry spokesman Assem al-Jihad said Baghdad and Arbil had agreed on restarting them.
“The federal government and the government of the Kurdish (autonomous) region of Iraq reached a preliminary agreement to resume oil flows starting today from the Kirkuk fields through the KRI’s pipeline to the Ceyhan port in Turkey,” he told AFP.
He said between 50,000 and 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) would be exported through the Kurdish pipeline.
A source from the state’s North Oil Company confirmed that oil had begun pumping out of Kirkuk at 10:00 am (0700 GMT) on Friday morning, describing it a test.
“It began as an experiment with 50,000 bpd and will later reach an average of 80,000 bpd,” the source added.
The Kirkuk fields have changed hands several times in recent years in a tug-of-war over one of Iraq’s most oil-rich regions.
The Kurds took Kirkuk in 2014, as the Islamic State group swept across parts of Iraq’s north, and began exporting to Turkey from there through their own pipeline at around 420,000 bpd.
Last year, federal forces seized the fields but could only take around 30,000 bpd out by tanker truck to Iran.
The federal government had pledged to renovate their own parallel pipeline, but experts said it would take two years.
The announcement is one of the earliest victories for Iraq’s new Prime Minister Adel Abdel-Mahdi, a previous oil minister known for his good relations with Kurdish authorities in Arbil.
It also comes less than two weeks after Washington re-imposed sanctions on Iran’s oil, energy and finance sectors.
Baghdad was granted a 45-day waiver from the sanctions as long as it came up with a plan to wean itself off of Iranian-imported gas and electricity.
Iraq is OPEC’s second-largest oil exporter at 4.5 billion bpd. Oil exports make up almost the entirety of the government’s revenue, bringing in $8.5 billion last month.

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